His sweeping election victory Donald Trump it will change the US government, and the country itself, in ways no one can yet predict. So far, however, it appears that the music industry will not be affected as dramatically as other businesses.
“I don't think there will be that much change,” said a senior executive at one of the majors. Partly this is because music and copyright are no longer the hot topics they were a decade ago. And in part that's because, in an era of heightened partisan rancor, copyright is one of the few truly bipartisan issues, according to a half-dozen executives. Because it brings together Democrats who tend to look favorably on media businesses and Republicans who believe in strong property rights, passing legislation often depends more on building a bipartisan coalition of lawmakers.
There are no music companies in Trump's crosshairs, at least from his own public comments, and he tends to look favorably on entertainers, even when they tend not to reciprocate that respect. Indeed, right-wing Republicans have been far more critical of media companies and online platforms than of major corporations and movie studios.
The most immediate music business issue before the administration is the Justice Department's antitrust case against Live Nation Entertainment, which seeks to break up the company. Trump will appoint a new attorney general to replace him Merrick Garlandand this appointee is almost certain to replace Jonathan Canterwho heads the antitrust department. The future of the case will depend on Kanter's replacement, and several music executives and antitrust experts said it's hard to predict how that person will move forward.
“We congratulate President-elect Trump on his election,” said a spokesperson for Live Nation Entertainment. “Live Nation is proud to help bring joy to fans through concerts, sports and other live events. We look forward to working with the incoming administration to continue the positive impact our industry has on American jobs and local economies.”
Several executives without direct knowledge of the matter speculated that, for visual reasons, the DOJ would be less likely to drop the case than pursue a low-stakes settlement, but they all made it clear there was no way to know.
Right now, the big issue in the music industry is artificial intelligence, and the industry is lobbying for the Nurture Originals, Foster Art and Keep Entertainment Safe (NO FAKES) laws, which would protect the voices and likenesses of human creators. The bill was introduced in the Senate in July and the House of Representatives in September. He has sponsors on both sides of the aisle, including Senators Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). (One might assume they don't agree on much else.) The industry will push to pass it in the “lame duck” Congress before the end of the year, but it will conflict with other priorities, and many executives said that would be far-fetched. Otherwise, he will be reinstated next year and government changes are not expected to affect his chances much.
Some of the policies Trump has said he will pursue, such as tariffs on imports, could be bad for American business more broadly. This could make physical goods more expensive, especially merchandise such as T-shirts. It could also make CDs and vinyl more expensive, though only by so much since they could also be made in the US.
It is also possible that changes to the tax system could affect catalog sales, as well as the desirability of songs and recordings as an investment. However, it is unclear how much taxes will change – and other economic factors, such as interest rates, are likely to affect investment calculations more.
