The upcoming elections in the United States in November will be very important, with consequences for the economy, foreign policy, technology and perhaps even democracy itself. From the perspective of the music industry, however, not much is at stake. After two decades of change, the industry has found a new business model in the US, in the form of paid subscription streaming, and there's only so much a new president could do to either improve it or break it. Most of the industry's policy priorities involve either legislation (which any president would almost certainly sign) or in-the-weeds rulemaking processes.
You certainly don't get that feeling from artists and executives, most of whom support the Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president — and generally tend to vote Democratic. This likely stems from their personal politics — Harris doesn't have an extensive background on copyright policy or other issues important to the music business, though she's been seen shopping for vinyl and it seems to taste great. (Make America Great Again!) Despite the scorn they receive from media insiders, Republican presidents have often been better for it, tending to lower taxes, regulations and barriers to mergers. The same goes for legislators. Most music industry executives may not care about Sen's politics. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), but it has certainly helped their business.
Which candidate would be better for any particular business is not entirely clear because, at a time when the world is becoming more complex, US politicians seem to be offering less detail on complex issues. Both Harris and the former president Donald Trump they seem to run more for who they are than what they plan to do. (Based on Trump's comments at the National Association of Black Journalists event in Chicago on July 31, he seems to want to address who Harris is, which says a lot more about who he is, and not in a good way.) Some of that seems inevitable — Trump likes to change his mind, and Harris entered the race only after the President Joe Biden He gave it up on July 21st. It may simply reflect an increasingly racialized electorate.
But the music industry's biggest issues have remained bipartisan and seem to occupy a rare cross-party demilitarized zone in which politicians who don't usually agree on much come together. The prime example is copyright, which often unites Republicans who favor property rights and Democrats who want to support the arts. The most complex and important part of the Music Modernization Act of 2018 was introduced in the House of Representatives by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), who may not agree on much else. (In 2018, they shared the “Summertime Heat” playlist with Advertising sign.) This year, the NO FAKES Act brought together Blackburn and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), among others.
The industry's traditional rival to strong copyrights is Silicon Valley's platforms, which had a lot of power under former President Barack Obama. (Months ago, I saw Obama talk about the dangers of online misinformation without mentioning that he has done little to regulate the platforms it operates on.) Biden, who has been a staunch supporter of copyright, has been more skeptical of the Big technology. Now venture capitalists and tech companies, who tend to vote Democratic but favor libertarian politics, are courting both parties. Reid Hoffman and a group of 100 venture capitalists have announced their support for Harris, while Trump's choice for Vice President, JD Vancesometimes it seems to function as an entirely subsidiary of the arch-liberarian Peter Thiel. The next president will inevitably be called upon to deregulate AI at the expense of the rights holders who own the projects it will be trained on — the only question is who it will be. Investors will also push to legalize cryptocurrencies — or at least lower the legal barriers to pretend it's an investment instead of a high-level pyramid scheme.
The other big issue these days is antitrust law, which the Biden-appointed chairman of the Federal Trade Commission Lina Kan trying to get stronger. The immediate issue is the Justice Department's antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation Entertainment, but more aggressive antitrust enforcement would also make it harder for major labels to buy catalogs and companies. While limiting large companies could make it easier for smaller companies to compete, it could also reduce the number of potential buyers they might attract. And although Republicans have traditionally wanted to weaken antitrust law, some populists now see it as a tool to reduce the power of platforms like Google.
The next president's ability to help or hurt the music industry may come down to inserting copyright provisions into trade agreements that don't really resonate with the public. AI initiatives could also matter. More AI legislation will almost certainly follow the NO FAKES Act, but this debate is mostly pitting different businesses against each other. (NMPA recently asked the House and Senate Judiciary Committees to adjust copyright law, but that's not going to happen anytime soon.) It's harder than ever to pass federal legislation, and there's only so much the president can do about to help.
The music business will also try to win on smaller issues — whether it's legal to train an AI on copyrighted content and how much AI involvement makes a work ineligible for copyright. These are the kind of issues that call for position papers, not heated rhetoric. But we may not see them until 2025.
