Days after a panel of federal judges voted in favor of a new law that would ban TikTok in the United States starting Jan. 19, independent firm Artist Partner Group (APG) began assessing how it could affect marketing campaigns — and how the company must adapt.
“It's hard to imagine a reality where TikTok actually collapses,” he says Alec Hendersonhead of digital at APG. “But we have to be prepared. We shoot videos earlier, so if it goes, we have premium content that gets to other short-form video platforms very quickly.”
JD Tuminski, The former head of digital marketing at Def Jam and founder of Casadei Collective Marketing Agency also advises clients to be prepared. “If people are smart right now,” he says, “they already have plans for other platforms and are thinking about alternative marketing strategies.”
At least most music retailers have gone down this road in the past. President Trump tried to ban TikTok in 2020 but was blocked by the courts. “We've had this conversation internally so many times,” he sighs Rafael RochaCEO of marketing company NuWave Digital. “If I were a betting man, I'd bet with confidence that it won't be banned.”
Or maybe it hasn't been banned for long. President Trump returns to office on Jan. 20 and recently appeared more enthusiastic about TikTok, saying he had “a warm spot in my heart” for the app. Additionally, on Wednesday (December 18), the Supreme Court agreed to hear TikTok's challenge to the law that would ban it, in line with US TikTok's stance that a ban would lead to “massive and unprecedented censorship of more than 170 million Americans”.
Marketers, however, are trying to prepare for the app's possible demise. No one wants to be caught flat-footed, especially since TikTok “has become such a big part of our execution of releasing music and teasing new music,” he says. Alison Laughtervp digital, marketing and streaming for Red Light Management. If the app was illegal in the US, it would “definitely hurt us in the short term.”
The pain would probably be felt more acutely by up-and-coming artists who have yet to get name recognition. “Where will new artist discovery be in 2025 if this app completely disappears?” he asks Johnny Clohertyco-founder of digital marketing company Songfluencer. “There's new artist discovery on Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts — it's just not happening on the same scale as it is on TikTok.”
Some genres that reach a new audience overseas may also be more vulnerable if the use of TikTok is banned. “Country music is bigger than ever, and we're seeing more global success than ever before,” adds Gelio. “It would be a shame to have an international platform taken away from us at a time when we really have leverage with country acts. It slows down a rocket while it's hot for us.”
Many executives began practicing struggling with an existence without TikTok earlier this year. On February 1, Universal Music Group's deal with the platform ended and all of its artists' music was pulled from the app. A month later, several songs from other labels that featured contributions from Universal Music Publishing Group writers were also removed.
“It was a wake-up call for a lot of people,” he says Dan Roy Cartera former TikTok employee who recently launched Carter Projects, his own music marketing company. “That made people look at other platforms [outside of TikTok] and they realize that they have to develop them.”
But most marketers didn't find that other short-form video platforms could fill the void left by TikTok's absence. “Anyone I've talked to who tried to switch to another platform during that time frame generally didn't find anything comparable right away,” Carter says. That was certainly Laughter's experience: “I don't think we've found the sweet spot of how to mimic the success or the reach that we might see on TikTok with any other platform.”
However, if the TikTok ban were to take place in the US, the platform would still be available to hundreds of millions of users worldwide (at least for now). And clips that are popular on TikTok often make their way to other social media platforms. “Let's say TikTok is banned here — that doesn't mean internationally it can't be part of a strategy to promote streaming,” he says Jen Dharmafallmarketing director for ATG Group. “When you see Reels and Shorts make an impact on music consumption, it's often followed by something that goes viral on TikTok first.”
Several marketers have discussed using VPNs to bypass a possible Stateside ban and continue to advertise their operations to audiences in Europe, Latin America and Asia. And digital marketers abroad would almost certainly see an influx of business from American artists and labels. “Hiring companies to liaise with TikTok creators outside of the US is something I would consider if I were a musician,” notes Tuminski.
Artists and labels would also be watching closely to see where TikTok's large, famously active US user base ends up. “If that goes down, we're going to have to react to where the content and the movement and the energy are shifting,” Henderson says. “Short-form video isn't going away,” agrees Cloherty. “TikTok's audience is going somewhere.”
Reels and Shorts are commonly mentioned as potential TikTok replacements due to their focus on short-form videos. But other platforms can also serve as potential conduits for getting music to listeners.
X, formerly Twitter, doesn't come up in many music marketing conversations these days, but Henderson has seen it bring in new listeners for rappers. It has been focused on trying to harness the power of Twitch as well. APG artist Flawed Mangoes saw a major jump in streams after appearing on the stream of Kai Cenat, one of the most popular personalities on the platform.
Marketers are also interested in Snapchat's potential. “It's still used a lot by kids, but not as much by artists,” he says Jenna Rosenbergformer vice president of digital marketing at Atlantic Records; “There's an audience there, no one's just talking to it.” Darmafall noted that “more and more artists are posting that they follow them on Snapchat.”
And if TikTok is outlawed, audiences looking for a substitute may end up with another app altogether, which isn't currently part of the everyday conversation. “Platforms ebb and flow,” says Rosenberg. “Kids are going to find one that they're going to gravitate towards, and then we're all going to have to learn it very quickly and train artists on how to use it.”
For now, however, TikTok continues to work in the US, driving new listeners to songs like Lola Young's “Messy” and Sam Barber's “Indigo.” “As people build their plans for any releases coming at the beginning of the year, they still include TikTok as part of that plan,” says Darmafall. “It can't be your only plan.”
